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<p>　　2016年6月24日，在英国加入欧盟43年后，通过脱欧公投，成为第一个退出欧盟的国家。英国脱欧，引发的连锁反应不仅表现在宏观上欧盟和英国中短期的“双输”格局，更让“看上去很美”的欧盟进入“一言不合就退群”的时代；在旅游这个层面上，存在输赢双重格局。</p>
<p>　　从1973年1月1日，英国正式加入欧洲各大共同体到脱欧前，英国和欧盟保持着相对的“貌合神离”，例如英国作为欧盟国家，没有加入申根协定，即前往欧洲和英国旅游，需要申请两个签证；没有加入欧元区，货币方面继续使用英镑，而不是欧元。</p>
<p>　　<strong>1.摆脱经济低迷 需要中国钱袋子</strong></p>
<p>　　从英国脱欧而言，中短期英国和欧盟两地都继续深受经济下滑带来的相关不利影响，都面临极大的摆脱经济困境的压力。而就旅游业范畴，短期之内最容易有起色的，就是纷纷抓住中国钱袋子——中国出境游。可以预见，欧盟和英国，都会在现有的条件下，对中国旅游开放更多的利好条件，争夺中国出境市场。</p>
<p>　　据品橙旅游数据，以2016年6月英国旅游局的统计为例，2015年中国赴英游客数较2014年增长了46%，达27万人次；同时中国游客消费金额也增长了18%，达到了5.86亿英镑，跻身英国最具经济价值的十大入境游市场。</p>
<p>　　在脱欧公投前，Pinchain资料显示，英国旅游局非常看好中国市场的发展前景，英旅局曾表示，中国是全球最大的出境游市场，对英国旅游业而言非常重要，并邀请中国影视明星胡歌担任英国旅游局“友好大使”，共同推广英国的文化和旅游。英国旅游局将不断针对中国这个快速成长的市场，开发具有竞争力的英国旅游产品，致力于在2020年实现中国游客在英消费翻倍，达到10亿英镑的目标。</p>
<p>　<strong>　2.货币贬值 引发出入境利弊</strong></p>
<p>　　英国脱欧，引发了全球金融市场的巨震，英镑汇率一度暴跌10%，黄金、国债等避险资产急剧升温，国际金价上涨7.8%，创2008年以来最大单日涨幅。美元会上涨，黄金、大宗货品会上涨。</p>
<p>　　虽然人民币对美元的汇率，让人民币的国际购买能力受一定的影响，但英镑、欧元面临较大的贬值压力，会有一定抵消。所以英镑、欧元贬值与人民币对美元的走低，存在一定的对冲，英镑、欧元对人民币的汇率或下降更大，对中国前往英国、欧洲旅游的出境市场更为利好。</p>
<p>　　英镑兑人民币大幅下降以及部分非美货币兑人民币汇率的走低会降低出境游成本，带来更好的性价比。受此影响，英国地接成本下降9%左右，欧洲、澳洲等下降5%，对毛利率有明显提升。中国赴英和欧盟国家旅行中，旅游购物、旅游花费等，会受当地货币的贬值形成旅游成本的降低，进一步形成消费刺激，增加旅游花费。两地货币的贬值，特别是英镑汇率下跌，就一定时间而言，能影响赴英团队、自由行等价格的下跌。</p>
<p>　　但就从欧盟和英国前往中国旅游的入境市场看，短期直接影响不大，但未来或受影响。综合非欧元区数据，入境市场或呈乐观。</p>
<p>　　从数据表格可以看出，2015年中国入境游市场，在2598.54万外国人入境市场中，欧洲占489.14万人，其中英国占57.96万人。欧元和英镑贬值，将对欧盟和英国的出境游市场造成少量冲击，对中国而言，即从欧盟和英国前往中国的入境游市场或产生影响。</p>
<p>　　当然，欧洲市场入境游往往从预定到出发中间的有一定的期限，所以短期对两地前往中国的入境游影响不会直接和明显，但对旅游预订和中长期的出行，或有影响，还亟待观察。</p>
<p>　　而根据品橙旅游分析，美元、日币升值，综合两地及其他汇率上升地区的客人前往中国旅游的年到访量，未来中国入境游市场上升空间仍然很大。</p>
<p>　<strong>　3.接待成本下降 利好中国出境</strong></p>
<p>　　欧盟、英国受经济下滑影响，欧盟国家和英国中短期可能引发本大区市场需求不足，接待成本或下降，对中国的吸引力会增加。</p>
<p>　　数据显示，2015年英国全年入境游人次和消费金额方面均创新高，其中入境游客人次达3610万，较2014年增长了5%，而消费金额增长了1%，达到221亿英镑。品橙旅游数据显示，中国以27万人次、5.86亿英镑花费位居英国最具价值的十大入境游市场。在欧洲市场经济下滑引发的市场需求疲软中，旅游将备受波及，市场出游动力将下降，欧洲区内的旅游出行活力将减弱。</p>
<p>　　据业内人士透露，受英国脱欧影响，英国地接成本或下降9%左右，欧洲、澳洲等或下降5%，这些都对中国出境游有积极拉动，特别是像凯撒旅游等以出境游见长的优质品牌极大利好。</p>
<p>　　英国脱欧后，欧盟和英国双方都会承受一定压力，因此预计后续还会推出对经济有帮助的措施，旅游作为这些国家看重的对就业有重要影响的行业，预计后续政府以及会有更积极的举动，值得期待。受去年四季度巴黎恐怖事件影响，欧洲旅游已经接连两个季度增长乏力，不论是英国还是欧陆，这次事件都有望成为市场向好的重要转折点。</p>
<p>　　来源：品橙旅游《深度解读：英国脱欧对中国出入境旅游的影响》</p>
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